资料全部引用自一家名叫Asia Carbon Global的公司在某会议的公开演示。

感谢环保专家Bear在上一篇的精彩介绍。不过我还是觉得依靠第三方进行独立检测从而确定其‘价值’进行交易的方法在中国和其他发展中国家难度很大，执行起来成本很高。相比之下，传统商品期货交易的交割在指定仓库，对于货物的质量和规格集中式管理，比较有利于标准化，也比较有利于市场的发展。就想想中国的食品安全和ISO认证就知道了。有害气体的排放相比之下更看不见摸不到，骗的还是老外的钱，而且缺乏制裁手段，没道理不钻空子。总而言之就是即便能做到严格检查，成本也绝对不低。

我于是搜索了一下发现一些独立研究表明了和我类似的对于有效性的观点，而且都不是专门针对发展中国家，包括发达国家。反而是英美政府在捍卫这个CDM计划。

A working paper from two senior Stanford University academics examined more than 3,000 projects applying for or already granted up to $10bn of credits from the UN's CDM funds over the next four years, and concluded that the majority should not be considered for assistance. "It looks like between one and two thirds of all the total CDM offsets do not represent actual emission cuts." 斯坦福的学者研究了3000个申请CDM资助的项目发现 1/3 – 2/3 没带来实际减排

The Stanford paper, by Victor and his colleague Michael Wara, found that nearly every new hydro, wind and natural gas-fired plant expected to be built in China in the next four years is applying for CDM credits, even though it is Chinese policy to encourage these industries. "Traders are finding ways of gaining credits that they would never have had before. You will never know accurately, but rich countries are clearly overpaying by a massive amount," said Victor. 中国从现在到未来4年要建的水、风、天然气发电厂都在申请CDM（也就是欧美公司会付钱买这些清洁能源减下来排放标准），前提是这些产业本来就是中国支持的产业。关于这点，我个人觉得发达国家应该多出钱来保护环境，但是我觉得这种购买碳排放标准的方式不好，最后可能大部分钱流入了部分奸商腰包。

"There is a responsible level of scrutiny. The process is in continual reform. All the projects are vetted independently and are then certified by third parties. There are many checks and balances and we can show how all projects are vetted." 联合国官员捍卫CDM，称所有的项目都经过严格的认证和独立第三方的检查。

原帖在此：http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/may/26/climatechange.greenpolitics

1.主要市场

2. 一些价格，可以看到一些交易产品。不顾我也是门外汉，没搞清楚这些的区别。。。

3. 2种主要产品CER和EUA的比较，以及交易方式。可以看出这个也跟股票一样分一级市场二级市场，一级市场就跟IPO差不多，直接就把指标分了或者卖了。二级市场才开始自由交易。

4. 一个hedging的例子，我是没看懂。。。大概就是，这个碳排放指标的价格，与天然气发电和煤发电的成本有关系

5. 展望未来. 继发电厂等之后，航空业和船运也也要加入减排行列。CER配额会减少。